LOS ANGELES (Variety.com) – Variety’s Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year’s contenders in all categories. Variety’s Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.
To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE
DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON
2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR UPDATED: Mar. 4, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The HFPA solidified the frontrunner status for several films on the road to the Oscars. At the top, Chadwick Boseman won a posthumous Golden Globe in best actor (drama) for his performance as the trumpeter Levee in Netflix’s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” He’s only the second posthumous winner in the category, following Peter Finch for 1976’s “Network,” who went on to win the Oscar as well. It looks as though Boseman will be following suit. Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) looks to be the spoiler but Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) has never won a SAG Award and can turn it around there. Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”) is still on the bubble (don’t understand why) and Steven Yeun’s SAG nod help quite a bit.
Mads Mikkelsen makes his first entry for Thomas Vinterberg’s “Another Round” with a precedent that could lead to his surprise entry. He’s well known among actors, working in the MCU, and well-respected in the industry. The last time Denmark had a international feature winner on their hands was for 1988’s “Pelle the Conqueror,” which brought in a surprise nomination for the late Max von Sydow. Mikkelsen is just a few years younger than Sydow was at the time. Finally, in conversations with members and strategists, the film is being heavily watched, with his performance coming up many times in discussions. It could be one of those shockers (or not).
WATCH RECOMMENDATIONS BEFORE VOTING: Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), Jesse Plemons (“I’m Thinking of Ending Things”), Tahar Rahim (“The Mauritanian”), Tom Holland (“Onward”), Andy Samberg (“Palm Springs”), Ben Affleck (“The Way Back”)
PRECURSORS LEADER: Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios) Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021) 2021 Awards Season Calendar
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
Chadwick Boseman “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Levee – DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable “Mother of the Blues”. Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson’s play.. STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman
Anthony Hopkins “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
OSCAR HISTORY: 5 nominations, 1 win (1991’s “The Silence of the Lambs” in best actor) ROLE: Anthony – DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality. STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams
Riz Ahmed “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Ruben – DIRECTOR: Darius Marder SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer’s life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing. STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff
Steven Yeun “Minari” (A24)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Jacob – DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s. STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton
Mads Mikkelsen “Another Round” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Martin – DIRECTOR: Thomas Vinterberg SYNOPSIS: Four friends, all high school teachers, test a theory that they will improve their lives by maintaining a constant level of alcohol in their blood. STARRING: Mads Mikkelsen, Thomas Bo Larsen, Magnus Millang
NEXT IN LINE:
Gary Oldman “Mank” (Netflix)
OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 1 win (2017’s “Darkest Hour”) ROLE: Herman J. Mankiewicz – DIRECTOR: David Fincher SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles. STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton
Delroy Lindo “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Paul – DIRECTOR: Spike Lee SYNOPSIS: Four African American vets battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader and the gold fortune he helped them hide. STARRING: Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Jonathan Majors, Chadwick Boseman, Isiah Witlock, Jr,, Norm Lewis
Tahar Rahim “The Mauritanian” (STXfilms)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Mohamedou Ould Salahi – DIRECTOR: Kevin Macdonald SYNOPSIS: A detainee at the U.S military’s Guantanamo Bay detention center is held without charges for over a decade and seeks help from a defense attorney for his release. STARRING:Tahar Rahim, Jodie Foster, Benedict Cumberbatch, Shailene Woodley
Sacha Baron Cohen “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios)
OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination (2006’s “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” in adapted screenplay) ROLE: Borat Sagdiyev – DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter. STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova
Ben Affleck “The Way Back” (Warner Bros.)
OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 2 wins (1997’s “Good Will Hunting” in original screenplay and 2012’s “Argo” in best picture) ROLE: Jack Cunningham – DIRECTOR: Gavin O’Connor SYNOPSIS: Jack Cunningham was a high school basketball phenom who walked away from the game, forfeiting his future. Years later, when he reluctantly accepts a coaching job at his alma mater, he may get one last shot at redemption.. STARRING: Ben Affleck, Al Madrigal, Janina Gavankar
TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:
Tom Hanks “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
OSCAR HISTORY: 6 nominations, 2 wins (1993’s “Philadelphia” and 1994’s “Forrest Gump”) ROLE: Captain Jefferson Kyle Kidd – DIRECTOR: Paul Greengrass SYNOPSIS: A Civil War veteran agrees to deliver a girl, taken by the Kiowa people years ago, to her aunt and uncle, against her will. They travel hundreds of miles and face grave dangers as they search for a place that either can call home. STARRING: Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel, Elizabeth Marvel, Mare Winningham, Michael Angelo Covino, Ray McKinnon
Lakeith Stanfield “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: William O’Neal – DIRECTOR: Shaka King SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O’Neal. STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler
Kingsley Ben-Adir “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Malcolm X – DIRECTOR: Regina King SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s. STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr.
John David Washington “Malcolm & Marie” (Netflix)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Malcolm – DIRECTOR: Sam Levinson SYNOPSIS: A director and his girlfriend’s relationship is tested after they return home from his movie premiere and await critics’ responses. STARRING: John David Washington, Zendaya
Adarsh Gourav “The White Tiger” (Netflix)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Balram – DIRECTOR: Ramin Bahrani SYNOPSIS: The epic journey of a poor Indian driver who must use his wit and cunning to break free from servitude to his rich masters and rise to the top of the heap. STARRING: Adarsh Gourav, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Rajkummar Rao, Mahesh Manjrekar
Colin Firth “Supernova” (Bleecker Street)
OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 1 wins (2010’s “The King’s Speech”) ROLE: Sam – DIRECTOR: Harry Macqueen SYNOPSIS: Sam and Tusker are traveling across England in their old RV to visit friends, family and places from their past. Since Tusker was diagnosed with dementia two years ago, their time together is the most important thing they have. STARRING: Colin Firth, Stanley Tucci, Pippa Haywood, Peter MacQueen, Nina Marlin
Tom Holland “Cherry” (Apple TV Plus)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Cherry – DIRECTOR: Anthony Russo and Joe Russo SYNOPSIS: An Army medic suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder becomes a serial bank robber after an addiction to drugs puts him in debt. STARRING: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo, Kelli Berglund, Thomas Lennon
Dev Patel “The Personal History of David Copperfield” (Searchlight Pictures)
OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination (2016’s “Lion”) ROLE: David Copperfield – DIRECTOR: Armando Iannucci SYNOPSIS: A modern take on Charles Dickens’s classic tale of a young orphan who is able to triumph over many obstacles. STARRING: Dev Patel, Hugh Laurie, Tilda Swinton, Peter Capaldi, Gwendoline Christie
John Magaro “First Cow” (A24)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated ROLE: Cookie – DIRECTOR: Kelly Reichardt SYNOPSIS: A skilled cook has traveled west and joined a group of fur trappers in Oregon, though he only finds true connection with a Chinese immigrant also seeking his fortune. Soon the two collaborate on a successful business. STARRING: John Magaro, Orion Lee
Denzel Washington “The Little Things” (Warner Bros.)
OSCAR HISTORY: 9 nominations, 2 wins (1989’s “Glory” and 2001’s “Training Day”) ROLE: Joe ‘Deke’ Deacon – DIRECTOR: John Lee Hancock SYNOPSIS: Two cops track down a serial killer. STARRING: Denzel Washington, Jared Leto, Rami Malek
+ = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible ++ = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Daniel Day-Lewis has the most wins in this category with three, while Marlon Brando, Gary Cooper, Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, Fredric March, Jack Nicholson, Sean Penn and Spencer Tracy all have two each. Tracy and Sir Laurence Olivier have the most nominations in this category, with nine. Henry Fonda is currently the oldest winner at 76 for “On Golden Pond,” while Richard Farnsworth is the oldest nominee at 79 for “The Straight Story.” Adrien Brody is the youngest winner ever for “The Pianist” at 29, while Jackie Cooper is the youngest nominee ever for “Skippy” at 9.
Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Director 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup and Hairstyling 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Sound 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Short 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Short 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Live-Action Short
2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)
Best Motion Picture – Drama Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language Best Motion Picture – Animated Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama) Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama) Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Best Director – Motion Picture
2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)
Best Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
About the Academy Awards (Oscars) The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.
About the Golden Globes The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.
The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.
About the SAG Awards The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”
The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021
Must Read: Text